普洱茶专业鉴赏社区

from:FAO
Tea prices to maintain upward trend in 2008
Output in Viet Nam increases 28 percent, another record crop in China

14 February 2008, Rome – In 2008, world tea prices are expected to maintain their upward trend as a result of a tight supply on the world market exacerbated by a projected 10 percent decrease in Kenyan production due to civil unrest, according to an FAO report on current and future trends in the tea market prepared for the Global Dubai Tea Forum 2008 (February 19-20).

This follows a review of the world tea market for 2006 which indicated an improvement in the fundamental oversupply situation that had persisted for many years. Indeed, the FAO Composite Price, as a world indicator price for tea, increased by 11.6 percent to reach US$1.83 per kg in 2006. The market fundamentals for 2007 suggest that this trend is likely to continue as the FAO Index has increased a further 6.5 percent to US$1.95 per kg in 2007.

World tea production grew by more than 3 percent to reach an estimated 3.6 million tonnes in 2006, according to latest available figures cited by the report. The expansion was due to another record crop in China with 1.05 million tonnes – an increase of 9.5 percent over the record established in 2005 – and a record 28 percent increase in output in Viet Nam which pulled its production up to 133 000 tonnes.

A rehabilitation and expansion programme implemented by Viet Nam explains the impressive growth in output as tea bushes reached optimum yields. In China, government policies to increase rural household incomes and major rationalization of the farming systems including the replacement of low yielding bushes also boosted production.

An increase was also recorded in India, the second larger producer, where harvests were 3 percent higher, totalling 945 000 tonnes for 2006. The increases in China, India and Viet Nam should offset declines in major producing countries, according to the report.

Consumption and projections

World tea consumption grew by 1 percent in 2006, reaching 3.64 million tonnes. For the first time, China’s consumption surpassed that in India, recording a dramatic increase of 13.6 percent in total consumption. For India, although the annual tea consumption growth was not as spectacular as that of China – at 2.51 percent – this level was considerably higher than the annual trend of 1.6 percent on average over the previous decade.

World trade in tea remained relatively unchanged at 1.55 million tonnes in 2006, as increased shipments from Sri Lanka, India and Viet Nam offset major declines in Kenya and Indonesia, according to the report.

In the medium term, FAO projections for the next 10 years to 2017 indicate that world black tea production will grow at 1.9 percent annually to reach 3.1 million tonnes while world green tea production is expected to grow at a considerably faster rate of 4.5 percent annually to reach 1.57 million tonnes.

In terms of consumption, black tea is projected to reach 2.8 million tonnes, indicating an oversupply of about 300 000 tonnes as the stronger consumption growth in producing countries is unlikely to offset declines in traditional net import markets.

“The projections suggest that although supply will outstrip demand, the gap will be closer than it has never been. However for black tea there is a danger of supply overreacting to the current price hikes,” FAO tea expert Kaison Chang said.

Strategies to improve demand

“Strategies must be launched to continue the improvement in demand. Opportunities for an expansion in consumption and improvement in prices exist in producing countries themselves as per capita consumption levels are relatively low,” Chang added.

“The imposition of quality standards to segment the world tea markets should also be exploited further. Even the impact of imposing a minimum quality standard as a means of improving the quality of tea traded internationally, would by default, reduce the quantity of tea in the world market and improve prices, at least in the short to medium terms,” Chang also said.

The Global Dubai Tea Forum is a biennial event which includes an exhibition space. It attracts a broad range of representatives from across the global tea industry. The focus is on sharing industry-specific knowledge and best practices for improving tea production and marketing worldwide.

太尖刚了，能否给个汉字版本

好的！我也只是能看个大体！到时我发上去！

兄弟,你真是够强!!!

这不是我强，是我的同学做译呀！她就是我们了解国外的主力。哈哈！

我叫她译成中文，可她就说这样更好！

看着好晕哪

茶价上升？
要看哪种茶

并不可以一概而论

有升有降

很正常

2008年茶叶价格将继续保持上升趋势
越南茶叶产量增长28%，中国的收获量再创新高

2008年 2月14日，罗马 –根据粮农组织为2008年迪拜全球茶叶论坛（2月19-20日）准备的一份关于茶叶市场目前和未来趋势的报告，世界市场供应紧张状况因肯尼亚当前内乱造成的可能减产10%而加剧，预计2008年世界茶叶价格将继续走高。

这一预测以2006年世界茶叶市场回顾为根据，该回顾显示已持续多年的基本供应过剩情况有所好转。作为全球茶叶指示性价格的粮农组织综合价格在2006年实际增长了11.6%，达到每公斤1.83美元。2007年市场基本面表明这一趋势可能将继续，因为粮农组织指数在2007年进一步增加6.5%，达到每公斤1.95美元。

根据报告援引的最新数据，2006年世界茶叶产量增长超过3%，达到约360万吨。增长的原因是中国收获量再创新高，达到105万吨，比2005年的创纪录产量提高9.5%；越南的产量增幅为28%，达到创纪录的133000吨。

越南产量的显著增长应归功于所实施的一项恢复和扩展计划，使茶林实现了最佳产量。在中国，促进产量增长的因素还包括政府推行的农户增收政策，以及包括更换低产茶林在内的耕作系统的合理化。

作为第二大茶叶生产国，印度的产量亦增长了3%，总产量在2006年达到945000吨。该报告认为，中国、印度和越南产量的增长应能够抵消主要生产国的减产。

消费量和预测产量

2006年世界茶叶消费量提高了1%，达到364万吨。中国的消费量首次超过印度，总消费量增幅为13.6%。就印度而言，尽管茶叶的年消费量不像中国2.51%的增幅那样显著，但比过去十年来平均1.6%的年增长趋势要高得多。

根据该报告，斯里兰卡、印度和越南装运量的增加抵消了肯尼亚和印度尼西亚的大量减少，因此世界茶叶贸易量基本保持未变，2006年为155万吨。

从中期看，粮农组织对到2017年的未来十年的预测显示，世界红茶产量将每年增加1.9%，达到310万吨，而世界绿茶产量预计将以每年4.5%这一更快速度增长，达到157万吨。

就消费量而言，红茶产量预计将达到280万吨，表明供应过剩约30万吨，其原因是生产国较强的消费增长不太可能抵消传统净进口市场消费量的下降。

粮农组织茶叶专家Kaison Chang说：“根据预测，尽管将出现供过于求的情况，但是这一差别将小于以往任何时候。然而就红茶来说，对目前价格上涨的过度反应将给供应造成威胁。”

他还说：“必须采取措施，继续改善需求。提高消费量和改善价格的机会掌握在生产国自己手中，因为那里的人均消费水平相对较低。”

此外，Chang先生还指出：“实行按质量标准来分割世界茶叶市场的做法应予以进一步推广。即使采取最低质量标准作为改善国际贸易中茶叶质量的手段，其影响，至少从短期至中期而言，也将会导致世界市场茶叶数量的减少和价格的改善。”

迪拜全球茶叶论坛为两年一次的活动，包括一个展览区。它吸引了来自全球茶叶领域的众多代表。论坛的重点是共享行业知识和最佳规范，以改善全球茶叶生产和销售。

越南茶叶产量增长28%————
越南作为世界生产格局中的后来者，经常扮演了搅局者的角色。看了越南茶叶产量增幅速度之大，让人感叹之余，不免后怕。
记得01年全球咖啡干豆价格暴跌，除了跟主产地巴西等过咖啡丰收有关，还跟新种植国家越南的咖啡产量猛增有关。